Brazil votes in a presidential runoff on October 25, and Polymarket has a clear favorite. As of October 20, “Brazil Presidential Election” prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 76.65¢ and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 22.5¢ — roughly three to one, after a first round that pre-election polls expected Lula to lead.
Here’s where that price comes from, which side markets are open for the runoff, and what you can actually trade on a Prop Hub account.
The first round in numbers
The first round was held on October 4. Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) took 47.03% of valid votes, Lula (Workers’ Party) 45.16%. A gap of under two points — but in the opposite direction from the polls, which had Lula about three points ahead going in. Turnout was 78.92%.
The rest of the field took about 8% combined: Augusto Cury 2.9%, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado 2.2% each, Romeu Zema 0.3%. Those voters, plus people who voted blank or stayed home, decide the runoff.
A 1.9-point lead alone doesn’t justify a 77% price. Traders seem to be pricing two things on top of it: the polls missed in one direction, and most of the eliminated candidates sit on the right, so their voters are more likely to move to Flávio. Whether you agree with that read is the real question before you buy either side.
Markets open for the runoff
Polymarket runs several markets alongside the main one. Prices are for “Yes”, as of October 20.
| Market | Outcomes and prices |
|---|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election | Flávio 76.65¢ · Lula 22.5¢ |
| Second Round: Margin of Victory | Flávio <4% — 41.5¢ · Flávio 4–8% — 32.5¢ · Lula <4% — 19.5¢ · Flávio 8–12% — 6.85¢ |
| Second Round: Turnout | 78–80% — 58¢ · 76–78% — 23.5¢ · 80–82% — 16¢ |
| 1st Place in Minas Gerais | Flávio 92¢ · Lula 8.35¢ |
| 1st Place in Pará | Lula 80.5¢ · Flávio 20¢ |
| 1st Place Abroad | Lula 67.5¢ · Flávio 33.5¢ |
Each bracket is its own Yes/No market. “Flávio <4%” at 41.5¢ means the market gives about a 41% chance that Flávio wins narrowly, by less than four points. If you want the longer version of how a price maps to a probability, see prices are probabilities.
Margin of victory
The margin is the absolute difference between the two candidates’ shares of valid votes in the runoff. With only two names on the ballot, a 4-point win is roughly 52–48.
Add up the brackets and something interesting shows up. All of Flávio’s margin brackets together come to 82.7¢ on October 20, while the main market has him at 76.65¢. For Lula it’s the other way round: 20.55¢ against 22.5¢. Gaps like this between related markets are common. Some of it is spread and thin books; some of it is simply different traders with different views in each market. Before buying in one, check what its neighbor says.
Turnout
Most of the money in the turnout market sits on 78–80%, which is where the first round landed. A repeat is the obvious call, and it’s already priced in. One detail from the rules: if the official figure lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher bracket.
States and the overseas vote
State markets follow Brazil’s electoral map. Minas Gerais, one of the largest states, has Flávio at 92¢; Pará leans Lula. There’s also a market on who comes first among votes cast abroad, where Lula is favored. The closer a price gets to the edge, the less you make per dollar: a share bought at 92¢ pays only 8¢ if you’re right.
What you can trade on Prop Hub
Prop Hub only lists markets that close within 2 days. The check uses the end date of the individual market on Polymarket, not of the whole event.
The runoff markets — margin, turnout, states — end on October 26, so they enter the window on October 24. The main winner market still carries the first-round date on Polymarket, October 5. A market whose end date has passed can’t be bought on Prop Hub, even if it still trades on Polymarket. For what’s live right now, check markets in the help center or the app’s home page.
Positions settle on Polymarket’s resolution. For this election that means official data from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and a consensus of credible reporting. Brazil votes electronically, so a preliminary result usually arrives the same evening, but formal resolution can take longer.
Managing risk on an election
An election has one outcome that settles every related market at once. Holding Flávio in the main market, “Flávio 4–8%” in the margin market and Flávio in Minas Gerais is three outcomes with three separate limits — and one idea. If the idea is wrong, all three lose together.
The account rules account for this:
- you can put up to 5% of the starting balance into a single outcome — $500 on a $10,000 account;
- before every buy, the system checks the worst case, where every open position goes to zero at the same time; if equity would fall through the daily (10%) or total (20%) drawdown limit, the order is rejected.
More on this in the per-trade risk limit.
Example on a $10,000 account. $400 of “Flávio <4%” at 41.5¢ buys about 964 shares. If that’s the result, the position makes about $564 before fees; any other result costs $400. The same $400 on Flávio in Minas Gerais at 92¢ buys about 435 shares and makes just $35 if right. Same risk, sixteen times less upside.
Funded accounts add one more rule: profit from positions bought above 90¢ or below 10¢ doesn’t count toward your payout. You can still trade a 92¢ outcome on a funded account, you just can’t withdraw what it earns.
Before October 25
- Pull up the runoff markets on Polymarket and note the prices for margin, turnout and the key states.
- Compare the sum of the margin brackets with the main market. The bigger the gap, the more it’s worth understanding why.
- Decide in advance how much of the $500 limit on a $10,000 account you’ll commit to one idea, and split that amount across markets rather than maxing out each outcome.
- On October 24–25, check which markets show up in the app and look at book depth. In the smaller state markets, a few hundred dollars will move your average price noticeably.
No account yet? Start with the plans.